Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.
It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.
That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.
Disappointment and Mixed Messages
The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.
The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.
This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".
Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.
DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.
There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.
An Alternative View
That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.
In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.
The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.
Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.
Reasons for Doubt
There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.
But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.
The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.
The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.
But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.
International Dynamics
Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.
President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.
A Creative Solution
A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.
Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.
This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.
"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."
Remaining Concerns
Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?
Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.
