🔗 Share this article

China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.