This diplomatic language and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India hinted at a robust two-way partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen shared a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and labeled the India-Russia bond as a "lodestar", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's tenth visit to India over his 25-year rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi since the latter took office in 2014.
A Divide Between Pageantry and Reality
However, a clear divide persists between the ceremony and the actual content of this alliance. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed a series of agreements covering mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, anticipated announcements on major defence deals did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in deliveries of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime needs.
A Partnership Losing Geopolitical Weight
This all suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the same geopolitical clout it once did. During the Cold War, India maintained special barter arrangements and economic entry to the USSR and its allies. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both countries have sought to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the former importance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the West.
Diversification and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to cut its important links with Moscow. But, as Western pressure mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to diversify the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, balanced and sustainable". This involves improving entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans multiple key strategic fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Dependability
At an sentimental plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During recent frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more dependable partner.
The key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the conflict have been limited.
Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act
This situation does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's international stance. The country is poised to finalize a free trade agreement with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a major thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. However, even if a settlement is reached, if it falls short of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will certainly persist in Western capitals.
