Whenever the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for issues.
That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with boxes of contraband goods swinging beneath.
Over the past 10 weeks, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into suspension 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.
On one occasion, the national skies was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the officials are adamant they are facing something much more aggressive than simple smugglers.
They state the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an act of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.
Emergency Response
The Lithuanian government has instituted an official alert.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers previously, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.
"Naturally it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to impact bordering nations," a government minister stated.
The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If you want to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.
Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.
"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."
Nightly Patrols
Now, nightly, military police deploy in the frontier area.
The balloons are most common after dark.
Patrols establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.
Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any firm that can develop how to safely stop them.
For now, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.
Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.
Strategic Motives
The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.
This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as adversarial.
Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".
He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.
"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That means it benefits them."
The prevailing theory is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing sanctions.
"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.
Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.
Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.
"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.
"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.
"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."
