‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.